AS the long, slow death of Rangers FC goes on, we are witnessing a lot of sound and vision on both the Mainstream Media and in the blogsphere. I am loath to add my twopence worth to all the theories, comments and scenarios which are out there. This thing has gone on far too long, and for the sake of the poor benighted Scandinavian forests which are being clear-felled to feed the voracious needs of everyone who wants some steer as to what is going on at Ibrox.
But, in the very near future, we will discover which of the interested parties is the preferred bidder for what, if anything, is left of Rangers. One thing is certain, the only guy who will make anything from it (probably) will be Craig Whyte. He might be "irrelevant", be might be not a suitable person to run a football club in Scotland - but - he still owns Rangers and, if the preferred option of a CVA and Rangers FC continuing to operate comes to pass - somewhere along the line, the potential new owner(s) will have to do a deal with Mr Whyte for the club name, Ibrox, Murray Park etc. Any offer greater than £1 and wee Craig has made a profit.
I was speaking to a good friend of my son-in-law this week. This guy works in high finance and knows his subject well. His take is, Whyte probably acted immorally, recklessly and badly, but, as yet, as far as we know, he has done nothing illegal - so, when the dust settles, he will have to be dealt with and, since he holds the titles, he will have to be bought-out.
If this preferred option comes to pass - and everyone involved is keen to not mention that 10,000 lb gorilla which is still sitting there in the corner (the "BIG" tax case) - this single issue could still de-rail things. Being a natural pessimist, I still see liquidation as the most-likely outcome. Ta Ta Rangers, hello some new club.
As I have said before, putting Rangers right will cost more than the club will be worth in the real world, so nobody with the brains to equal their wealth will touch the club via the preferred scenario of CVA and carry-on, this doesn't make economic sense. Also, the preferred option calls for a continuation of the management style which got Rangers into trouble in the first place - buy, buy, buy.
For me, the best option for making real money out of buying Rangers would be, wait until liquidation, or buy then liquidate - then buy a struggling English club cheap: Portsmouth or Port Vale are the current favourites - re-locate them to Ibrox and play in the English League.
This would be a cross-border version of what Jim Ballantyne and the guys who bought the Airdrie name did after that club went bust. They had to buy Clydebank to get back into football. Whoever buys Rangers from the liquidator would be better off buying an English club. If they bought Rangers and Port Vale, the new club could be in the English Premiership in four seasons; if they bought Portsmouth they could be there in three. The new club, or the "rescued" club post-CVA will be out of Europe for three years in any case, plenty of time to bring some young home-grown players up to speed and avoid buying foreign mercenaries.
Such a scenario would also be good for Scottish football. If Rangers are "rescued" through the CVA plan, then the current situation whereby Rangers and Celtic, by the simple device of putting forward a united front can dominate the SPL will continue. They will ALWAYS vote together, thereby nullifying the need for an 11-1 majority to effect change in the SPL. BUT, if Rangers are liquidated and therefore flung out of the SPL, as they would be, then the other ten clubs could out-vote Celtic when it comes to which club replaces them.
Sure, the likes of the St Johnstone chairman feels, if Rangers go under, others will follow - that's his opinion, methinks he's being over-pessimistic. If Rangers are liquidated, there will be no relegation at the end of the season and Ross County will replace them. In theory this produces a voting scenario of Celtic being the odd team out in an 11-1 vote and the necessary levelling of the financial playing field could be achieved.
Will the other clubs have the cojones to face-down Celtic? Or will they cave-in, relegate Dunfermline or one of the other strugglers, let Ross County be promoted then vote to allow the Rangers newco straight back in?
It's not just Duff and Phelps which has big decisions to make in the coming weeks.
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