Socrates MacSporran

Socrates MacSporran
No I am not Chick Young, but I can remember when Scottish football was good

Thursday 7 April 2016

Top 40 - Aye OK, But I'd Rather See Us In The Top Ten

THE new FIFA rankings came out today, and, haud the front page, michty me - Scotland has, on the back of our magnificent thrashings of the Czech Republic and Denmark, risen five whole places. We are now the 40th best footballing nation on earth.
 
Get oot the Ne'erday bottle, let's drink what's left in celebration of this great feat. Jings, crivvens, help ma Boab, nothing's gonna stop us now - we are certainties to win the European Championship now. Oh! Haud-oan, we hivnae qualified.
 
I tend to ignore the overall FIFA rankings. I remain utterly convinced, there are nations from outwith Europe, ranked above us, whom we could beat most days of the week. I tend, instead, to concentrate on our European ranking.
 
Here there is reason for one cheer, perhaps one and a half, because, whilst 40th in the world, we are now ranked 26th in Europe. This means, given there are 52 nations in UEFA with a world ranking; we are now back in the top half of the table, if only just.
 
Looking ahead to our 2018 World Cup qualifying campaign, which kicks-off in September, we remain the third-ranked team in our group, behind England and Slovenia. So, let's not get carried away.
 
I dare say there would be some degree of back-slapping along the sixth floor corridor at Hampden this morning. "Well done Gordon, that will keep the critics quiet for a week or two", and such-like encouragement being offered to WGS. A wee hauf at lunch time to celebrate.
 
We have won two pre-season friendlies, if you like, without playing well. Hardly encouragement to go out and put some hard-earned on our chances of qualifying, is it?
 
Craig Brown - the last Scottish manager to lead us to the finals

Craig Brown CBE was the last Scotland manager to lead us to the finals of either the World Cup, or the European Championships. Craigie is now 75 and not so-much the Father of Scottish football as one of the two along with Sir Alex Ferguson, grand-fathers of the game here.
 
Since Craig led us to the 1998 World Cup Finals in France, we have fought four unsuccessful World Cup campaigns.
 
For the 2002 finals in Japan and South Korea, we went into the qualifiers ranked second of the five teams in our group, the others being Belgium, Croatia, Latvia and San Marino. We finished third. Our record in played, won, drawn, lost, goals for, goals against and points format was: 8-4-3-1-12-6-15.
 
Four years later, we failed to qualify for the 2006 finals in Germany, when, ranked third of the six teams in our group, alongside Italy, Slovenia, Norway, Belarus and Moldova, we indeed finished third and were out with a final record which read: 10-3-4-3-9-7-13.
 
For the 2010 South African finals, we went into a five-team qualifying group with Netherlands, Norway, Macedonia and Iceland; we were ranked second of these five nations at the start, we again finished third, our record: 8-3-1-4-6-11-10.
 
Last time out, trying to reach the 2014 finals in Brazil, we had slipped to being the fourth-ranked nation in a six-nation group with Belgium, Croatia, Serbia, Wales and Macedonia. We justified that ranking, finishing, as expected, fourth of the six nations, with a record reading: 10-3-2-5-8-12-11.
 
Doing the arithmetic, in these four qualifying campaigns over the past 16 years, our record reads: p 36 - w 13 - d 10 - l 13 - for 35 - agnst 36 - 49 pts.
 
We have reached the finals in 0 of 4 campaigns; we have reached the qualifying play-offs in 0 of 4 campaigns.
 
We have won 36% of the games we have played; drawn 28% and lost 36%. We have only won 45% of the available points and only once, in the 2002 qualifiers, have we won more matches than we lost. We have never exceeded expectations by finishing higher than our starting ranking.
 
Over the four campaigns, we have scored an average of 0.97 goals per game, and conceded 1.00 goals per game.
 
In those 36 games, we have capped 88 players - or, if you like, we have completely changed our squad for every new campaign. For the 2002 campaign, we called on nine players who had played in the 1998 finals in France, plus three squad members from 1998 who had not played - therefore, we capped 15 newcomers for the 2002 campaign under Craig Brown.
 
Subsequent managers have not matched Brown's consistency of selection, and that has perhaps been a factor in our lack of success.
 
Maybe, when we set-out on the 2018 qualifying campaign at the start of the new season, Gordon Strachan should decide on his best 22-man squad, and stick with them, injuries permitting. That way, we might give the players the security and confidence they need to perform at their best, and allow them to build a bond.
 
Gordon Strachan - needs to show consistency in selection
 
It is not as if Scottish football is awash with world-class talents. Realistically, we do not have three or four players vying for each position. Deciding on a squad, work on the principle, form is transient, class is permanent and let them gel as a team. You never know, it might work.
 
Some of these 88 players have been plucked from obscurity, flung into World Cup matches then vanished - there doesn't seem to be any effort at squad building towards the big tournament.
 
Another thing the statistics of the last four campaign failures has not taught us is - we do not score enough goals. We concede only an average of one goal per game, which is acceptable, but, only scoring at the rate of 0.97 goals per game is not acceptable. We have not scored three or more goals in a World Cup qualifying campaign since we put three past Slovenia, back in the 2006 campaign. That game was played in October, 2005 - more than ten years ago.
 
 Darren Fletcher - on-target in Slovenia in 2005
 
The time before that when we score three or more goals was in the home game against San Marino, in the 2002 campaign, when we won 4-0. Our inability to score goals, against even the weakest opposition, is our Achilles heel.
 
We have to sort this out, quickly. Let's try old-fashioned Scottish football. We are supposed to be the football romantics, like the Brazilians. Our creed should be - OK, you score three, we will score four. We might, occasionally, crash and burn, but, let's go down trying.
 
I am sure the Tartan Army would rather watch us going for goals than playing 4-6-0, any day of the week.
 
So, by all means celebrate the fact Scotland, the nation which gave football shape, which invented the passing game and made it a team game, is now the 40th best footballing nation on the planet - the 26th best in Europe.
 
But, don't expect us to be going back to the top any time soon, unless there is a revolution inside Hampden. And, I think we will be independent before we are back at football's top table in the World Cup finals.
 
 
 
 
 
 

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