EXACTLY
who,
from which nation, invented football is an argument that will run and
run. What is fairly conclusive, however, is that it was the Scots –
the men of Queen's Park with “the educated feet,” the guys from
the Vale of Leven – the “Scotch Professors” who went south to
Lancashire and beyond, who gave “the Beautiful Game” its
distinctive and effective pass and run formation.
The 1889 Preston North End "Invincibles" relied heavily on imported "Scotch Profesors"
Using
this back catalogue as justification, we Scots have aye had a guid
conceit of our domestic game, and native affinity with the finer
points of the game. But, today, with 211 nations in membership of
FIFA – where stands Scotland.
Internationally,
we are currently ranked 39th
of FIFA's 211 member nations, and 25th
of the 54 members of UEFA. So, we are in the top one-fifth of nations
in the world and in the top half in Europe.
But,
it is a different story when we look at the standing of our clubs.
The official UEFA clubs so-efficient listing has Celtic
ranked 48th
of the 450 clubs on their list; next is Aberdeen
(175),
then Hibernian,
Rangers, St Johnstone and
Hearts in
positions 232 to 235 respectively, with Inverness
Caledonian Thistle and
Motherwell
ranked
236th
and 237th.
Of
course, to get a UEFA club co-efficient, a club has to have been
involved in a European club competition over at least one of the past
five years.
At
the weekend I came across an article in The Observer, which directed
me to the American-based website: FiveThirtyEight.com.
(Hereafter
referred to as 538),
which
made for interesting reading.
Nate Silver - founder of FiveThirtyEight.com
Founded
by distinguished American statistician Nat Silver, the site is, in
the eyes of many people, the dog's bollocks when it comes to the art
of predictions, particularly in football, where it will give you the
likelihood of a win, draw or loss for the games in the leagues for
which they have data.
The
site also ranks clubs, and this is very interesting for Scots, since
it gives a global ranking – they call it a SPI or Sporting Power
Index, for our teams – which does not make for good reading.
Naturally,
Celtic again
top the Scottish rankings, listed as the 113th
best club side on the planet. Again, it is hardly news that, right
now, Rangers
come next in position 179. They are followed by: Hibernian
(235),
Hearts (370),
Kilmarnock
(375),
Aberdeen (400),
Livingston
(458),
St Johnstone
(560), Motherwell
(571),
St Mirren
(594),
Hamilton
Academical (598)
and Dundee
(607).
What
is, to me anyway, is the fact the 538 data, which is updated after
every game, demonstrates the approximate level of each team. For
instance, Celtic, at 113, are just below Angers,
who are currently tenth
in Ligue 1, the French top flight, and just above Genoa,
who
are ninth
in Serie A.
Rangers'
“neighbours
in the table are, immediately above them: Santos
Laguna, currently
third in the Mexican top flight, while just below them are Bristol
City, tenth
in the English Championship.
With
both halves of the Old Firm in European action this week, I thought I
would have a look at what 538 thought of their chances.
For
Celtic's
match with RB
Leipzig, 538
reckons Leipzig have a 60% chance of winning it, with Celtic's
chances rated at only 17%, while they believe there is a 23% chance
of a draw.
Rangers'
home
game with Spartak
Moscow is
seen as a harder one to call. Steven Gerrard's team are given a 35%
chance of winning, against the Russians' 40% chance, with a 25%
chance of a draw.
Steven Gerrard - his side's game on thursday is a hard one to call
When
it comes to getting out of the Group and into the last 32 knock-out
phase of the Europa League, 538 believes Rangers' chances are better
than Celtic's. In Celtic's
group, they rate RB
Salzburg as
group favourites, with a 75% chance of topping the group, and a 21%
chance of finishing second; for RB
Leipzig the
ratings are respectively 19% to win the group, 51% chance of
finishing second; Celtic they reckon, have a 5% chance of winning the
group, and a 24% chance of finishing second and qualifying, while
Rosenburg's
chances are rated as only 1% to win the group and 2% to qualify.
In
Rangers
group, Villareal
are
favourites to win it (52% chance), they also have a 28% chance of
qualifying. Next come the Ibrox men (25% to win, 29% to qualify),
followed by Spartak
Moscow, (14%
chance to win the group, 26% to finish second) with Rapid
Vienna's chances
a low 9% to win the group and 17% to qualify second.
Of
course, we all know: “There are lies, damned lies and statistics,”
but, increasingly in football, statistics are coming into play.
Certainly, our two European representatives have a lot to play for on
Thursday night.
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