Statistically - We're Not That Good

EXACTLY who, from which nation, invented football is an argument that will run and run. What is fairly conclusive, however, is that it was the Scots – the men of Queen's Park with “the educated feet,” the guys from the Vale of Leven – the “Scotch Professors” who went south to Lancashire and beyond, who gave “the Beautiful Game” its distinctive and effective pass and run formation.

The 1889 Preston North End "Invincibles" relied heavily on imported "Scotch Profesors"

Using this back catalogue as justification, we Scots have aye had a guid conceit of our domestic game, and native affinity with the finer points of the game. But, today, with 211 nations in membership of FIFA – where stands Scotland.

Internationally, we are currently ranked 39^th of FIFA's 211 member nations, and 25^th of the 54 members of UEFA. So, we are in the top one-fifth of nations in the world and in the top half in Europe.

But, it is a different story when we look at the standing of our clubs. The official UEFA clubs so-efficient listing has Celtic ranked 48^th of the 450 clubs on their list; next is Aberdeen (175), then Hibernian, Rangers, St Johnstone and Hearts in positions 232 to 235 respectively, with Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Motherwell ranked 236^th and 237^th.

Of course, to get a UEFA club co-efficient, a club has to have been involved in a European club competition over at least one of the past five years.

At the weekend I came across an article in The Observer, which directed me to the American-based website: FiveThirtyEight.com. (Hereafter referred to as 538), which made for interesting reading.

Nate Silver - founder of FiveThirtyEight.com 

Founded by distinguished American statistician Nat Silver, the site is, in the eyes of many people, the dog's bollocks when it comes to the art of predictions, particularly in football, where it will give you the likelihood of a win, draw or loss for the games in the leagues for which they have data.

The site also ranks clubs, and this is very interesting for Scots, since it gives a global ranking – they call it a SPI or Sporting Power Index, for our teams – which does not make for good reading.

Naturally, Celtic again top the Scottish rankings, listed as the 113^th best club side on the planet. Again, it is hardly news that, right now, Rangers come next in position 179. They are followed by: Hibernian (235), Hearts (370), Kilmarnock (375), Aberdeen (400), Livingston (458), St Johnstone (560), Motherwell (571), St Mirren (594), Hamilton Academical (598) and Dundee (607).

What is, to me anyway, is the fact the 538 data, which is updated after every game, demonstrates the approximate level of each team. For instance, Celtic, at 113, are just below Angers, who are currently tenth in Ligue 1, the French top flight, and just above Genoa, who are ninth in Serie A.

Rangers' “neighbours in the table are, immediately above them: Santos Laguna, currently third in the Mexican top flight, while just below them are Bristol City, tenth in the English Championship.

With both halves of the Old Firm in European action this week, I thought I would have a look at what 538 thought of their chances.

For Celtic's match with RB Leipzig, 538 reckons Leipzig have a 60% chance of winning it, with Celtic's chances rated at only 17%, while they believe there is a 23% chance of a draw.

Rangers' home game with Spartak Moscow is seen as a harder one to call. Steven Gerrard's team are given a 35% chance of winning, against the Russians' 40% chance, with a 25% chance of a draw.

 Steven Gerrard - his side's game on thursday is a hard one to call

When it comes to getting out of the Group and into the last 32 knock-out phase of the Europa League, 538 believes Rangers' chances are better than Celtic's. In Celtic's group, they rate RB Salzburg as group favourites, with a 75% chance of topping the group, and a 21% chance of finishing second; for RB Leipzig the ratings are respectively 19% to win the group, 51% chance of finishing second; Celtic they reckon, have a 5% chance of winning the group, and a 24% chance of finishing second and qualifying, while Rosenburg's chances are rated as only 1% to win the group and 2% to qualify.

In Rangers group, Villareal are favourites to win it (52% chance), they also have a 28% chance of qualifying. Next come the Ibrox men (25% to win, 29% to qualify), followed by Spartak Moscow, (14% chance to win the group, 26% to finish second) with Rapid Vienna's chances a low 9% to win the group and 17% to qualify second.

Of course, we all know: “There are lies, damned lies and statistics,” but, increasingly in football, statistics are coming into play. Certainly, our two European representatives have a lot to play for on Thursday night.