I CAN STILL vaguely remember the first time I saw a Scotland team tank in a big tournament: Uruguay 7 - Scotland 0; that match was played in Basle's Sankt Jakob Stadion, on 19 June, 1954.
Seventy years on, last night in Stuttgart, we had a better Swiss experience, but, I remain convinced we will again be back home, wearing our Anyone But England tee-shirts come the sharp end of these Euros. It's the Scottish way: the Tartan Army turns up, gets the party started, but has the good grace to decamp for home before things get serious.
The nation which gave The Beautiful Game form and substance is now a peripheral, slightly comic warm-up act for the serious stuff of the knock-out stages. Yes, we were a lot better than in our opener against Germany, however, tournament play is all about winning and progressing, and last night, we failed to win.
Indeed, in terms of chances created, of working the opposition goalkeeper, we took second prize to a workmanlike but hardly inspiring Switzerland.
Long experience has taught me, somehow we will find a way to miss out on the knock-out games. My own low expectations are that we will probably scrape a narrow victory in our third group game, against Hungary, back in VfB Stuttgart's magnificent MHP Arena on Sunday, but finish fifth of the six third-placed finishers from the group stage, and miss-out on the last 16, probably by a single goal.
The pre-game forecast, as things stand is that there is a 37% chance of a Scotland win, a 38% chance of the Hungarians winning and a 25% chance of a draw. This ties in nicely with the Scotland fan experience: It's the hope that kills.
OK, Scotland hasn't had a World-Class Player – ie an individual who is in the conversation when the really great players of an era are being talked about, since Jim Baxter and Denis Law were in their pomp, some 60 years ago. Yes, Kenny Dalglish was a star in a very-good Liverpool side, but, for me he never carried the individual threat or aura of the true greats – Pele, Maradona, Cruyff etc.
We have some good players in our squad in Germany, but, apart, possibly from Captain Andy Robertson, not a single player who will be spoken-of as a contender for the Team of the Tournament.
In this, Royal Ascot Week, to apply a Horse Racing approach: We have plenty of selling platers, but the Euro '24 is a Group One race. We are the football equivalent of the 50/1 shot, entered by over-optimistic connections for the Grand National, destined to fall at the fence after Beecher's Brook on the first circuit.
To continue the Horse Racing line, our course and distance record is not encouraging:
European Championships entered – 15
Qualified for the finals – 4 – 26.7% success rate
Matches played in the finals – 11
Record: p 11 – w 2 – d 3 – l 6 – for 7 – agnst 16 – pts 9/33 – 27.3%
Finishing place in past finals: 1992 – 5/8 : 1996 – 12/16: 2020 – 22/24
Hardly earth-shattering, but, still the Tartan Army turns up, brings a bit of colour and noise to the party, before going home early – it's become something of a football tradition.
The above is our record in those four versions of the European Championships where we have actually qualified for the big show – please, do not examine our record in the eleven tournaments where we crashed and burned in the qualifiers, believe me, it is too-painful.
I have no way, as yet, of knowing how this year's tournament will pan-out, but, I suspect my pessimistic forecast of the second paragraph of this entry will not be too far-out.
There is a – I feel rather dangerous – atmosphere growing around Sunday's game, a sort of attitude of: “It's only Hungary”. Haud oan a meenit pal:
FIFA world rankings: Hungary ranked 26 : Scotland ranked 39
UEFA national rankings: Hungary ranked 14 : Scotland ranked 21
Hungary qualified as group winners
Scotland qualified as group runners-up
Hungary has a superior Euros record to ours
Hungary, like Scotland, are in League A of the European Nations League
So, while the Tartan Army might be exuding confidence in the build-up to the game, we will not be facing a team of duds in the match. During season 2023-24, in the build-up to the Euros, both nations played ten full internationals. The respective records over these games is:
Scotland – p 10 – w 2 – d 3 – l 3
Hungary – p 10 – w 6 – d 3 – l 1
OK, we have won one and lost one of our two matches in Germany, while Hungary has lost both of their games to date, but, the fact they lost to Switzerland, with whom we drew, cannot be taken as definite confirmation of Scotland being better than Hungary, after all, although b oth sides lose, they performed better against Germany than we did.
Sunday's match will be tight, and it will be tough. As ever, when looking ahead to a Scotland game, we ought perhaps to lower our expectations and definitely not get ahead of ourselves.
Stephen Clarke has worked wonders with the talent available to him. Injuries have definitely not helped us in the run-up to this tournament, but, the brutal fact is, compared to other nations – even Hungary, we are light on players competing, on a weekly basis, at the sharp end of the major European leagues. A look at where our players play is revealing:
Scottish Premier League – 8
English Premier League – 5
English Championship – 9
Other Leagues – 4
Playing in one of Europe's top four leagues (Spain, Italy, Germany, England) – 6
Playing with a Champions League club next season – 5
Playing with a Europa League club next season – 4
This assumes players remain with their current club
As I wrote above, we do not, at the moment, have any truly-great international players. Andy Robertson might rate a mention in the discussion around a Greatest-ever Scotland XI, but I would suggest he'd be the only one of our squad in Germany to get a nomination for that hypothetical team.
Our five EPL players are all first picks for their clubs – so we have a small core of top-rated players in a top-rated league. That said, the majority of our players have to be considered journeymen -no slouches but lacking that wee bit of quality which makes the difference in the big matches.
So, while there is life, there is hope; but, given my long experience of seeing Scotland do an Ian McKellen, falling down on the big stage, I am resigning myself to yet another Scottish failure at the group stages, come Sunday night.
I'd love to be optimistic, but, bitter experience has taught me: it's not for us is the default position for Scotland in the major international competitions.
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